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The Venture Capital Bubble Was a Monetary Phenomenon: A Post-Mortem
The venture capital boom of 2020 and 2021 was not primarily a technology phenomenon. It was a monetary phenomenon that expressed itself through technology. The distinction matters because the lessons drawn from the subsequent correction are different depending on which explanation you accept. The technology-as-cause narrative goes like this: extraordinary technological progress — cloud computing, AI, remote work infrastructure — created genuine business opportunities of unpre

MG
Mar 63 min read


Music and Film IP Valuation: How Content Assets Get Priced in a Deal
The market for music and film IP has transformed over the last decade. Low interest rates, the growth of streaming, and the entry of institutional capital into content rights created a period of historically elevated valuations for music catalogues, film libraries, and other content assets. The environment has shifted since 2022, but the fundamental question — how do you actually value a music catalogue or film library in a transaction? — remains as relevant as ever for buyer

MG
Mar 33 min read


What Private Equity Actually Does to Portfolio Companies
Private equity has a cultural image problem. Depending on who you ask, PE firms are either disciplined operators who create value through professional management and strategic focus, or financial engineers who load companies with debt, fire employees, and flip assets for a quick profit. Both caricatures contain some truth. Neither is accurate as a general description. If you are a founder considering a sale to a financial sponsor, or a management team being acquired by one, h

MG
Mar 34 min read


How to Think About Valuation Before You Go to Market
Valuation is the question every founder asks first and almost everyone answers too simply. A multiple of revenue. A multiple of EBITDA. What a comparable company sold for. These reference points are useful but they don't tell you what your business is actually worth to the buyers you're going to approach — and the gap between those two things is where most valuation surprises come from. Why comparables are a starting point, not an answer Comparable company analysis — looking

MG
Mar 34 min read


Org Design for Growth-Stage Companies: When to Restructure and Who to Cut
Growth creates organizational debt. The structure that worked at 10 people doesn't work at 40. The roles that made sense when you were figuring out the product become constraints when you need to scale the business. And the people who were right for one stage of the company are sometimes wrong for the next. Nobody likes talking about this. But the founders who manage organizational transitions well — who make these decisions deliberately rather than reactively — build more du

MG
Mar 34 min read


What Is a Fractional CFO — And When Do You Actually Need One?
The term 'fractional CFO' has been applied to such a wide range of services — from bookkeeping cleanup to strategic financial advisory — that it has become almost meaningless as a category. Here is a clear account of what a fractional CFO actually does, what distinguishes a good one from a bad one, and when you need one versus when you don't. What a fractional CFO is not A bookkeeper who does financial statements. A controller who manages close. An accountant who handles tax

MG
Mar 33 min read
The 2021 Peak: A Case Study in Speculative Excess
The peak of the 2020 to 2021 speculative cycle will be studied in future editions of Kindleberger the way the South Sea Bubble and the dot-com peak are studied in current ones: as a unusually well-documented case of euphoria, where the evidence of excess is preserved in SPAC prospectuses, venture term sheets, crypto white papers, and the social media commentary of the participants in real time. What made 2021 unusual, even by the standards of speculative manias, was the simul
Mar 63 min read
Kindleberger's Anatomy of a Bubble: A Field Guide for the Present Moment
Charles Kindleberger's Manias, Panics, and Crashes, first published in 1978 and updated through five editions, is the most useful book ever written about financial bubbles — not because it provides a predictive model but because it provides a diagnostic one. Kindleberger, drawing on Minsky's theoretical framework and his own deep knowledge of financial history, described the anatomy of a speculative mania with enough precision that subsequent bubbles can be mapped onto his sc
Mar 63 min read
Minsky Was Right: The Financial Instability Hypothesis and Why Stability Is Destabilizing
Hyman Minsky spent most of his career at Washington University in St. Louis largely ignored by mainstream economics, which had concluded — with the confidence that precedes most large intellectual mistakes — that financial markets were self-stabilizing and that the business cycle had been tamed. Minsky argued the opposite: that financial stability is itself destabilizing, that the longer a period of economic calm persists the more fragile the financial system becomes, and tha
Mar 63 min read
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